SYRIA’S NEW Rulers: Is a Taliban-Like Takeover Imminent?
— Bashar al-Assad was ousted from Damascus two weeks ago, ending his family’s five-decade rule. The insurgent coalition that toppled him was led by Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda. HTS leader Muhammad al-Jolani, with a $10 million FBI bounty, is attempting to rebrand as Ahmed al-Sharaa to distance from his terrorist past.
Western governments hope HTS will lead a more inclusive Syria and avoid an Afghanistan-like scenario post-U.S. withdrawal in 2021. However, HTS leaders’ admiration for the Taliban raises concerns about their intentions. The Taliban congratulated HTS on Assad’s overthrow, further complicating the West’s cautious optimism.
Despite designating HTS as a terrorist organization, European governments and the UN have reached out to them to prevent another Afghanistan situation. U.S. diplomats have also engaged with Syria’s new rulers for the first time since 2011, aiming to support Syrian civil society and envision a peaceful future for the country.
Outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken explicitly warned HTS against following the Taliban’s path on Thursday. The Biden administration is wary of repeating past mistakes and seeks assurances that Syria won’t become another stronghold for extremist rule under its new leadership.