THREAD: alarming drop in consumer confidence

TRUMP’S 10% Tarifts Spark Stock Market Chaos

03 April 2025 — U.S. stocks plunged after President Trump announced a 10% tariff on all trading partners. The Dow dropped about 1,300 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also taking hits. Investors quickly reacted, showing concern over potential economic fallout.

President Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs starting at 10%, targeting countries worldwide and adding extra duties for “worst offenders.” This move has unsettled markets and might lead to higher consumer costs and a possible recession. Economists are worried about the long-term effects on both domestic and global economies.

Globally, the response has been mostly negative, with many countries considering countermeasures to protect their economies from these new tariffs. This rise in trade tensions marks a significant shift in international economic relations under Trump’s leadership. Key sectors relying on international trade may face challenges as relationships with major trading partners change.

STOCK MARKET Chaos: US Faces Economic Fears as Tariffs Loom

01 April 2025 — U.S. stocks took a nosedive today as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” approaches, bringing potential tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports. Analysts warn these tariffs could trigger a market downturn and increase recession risks. Wolfe Research has already revised U.S. growth estimates for 2025 down to 1.6%.

Retail giant Kohl’s experienced its worst trading day since 1992, with stocks tumbling by 26% after issuing disappointing guidance for the year. Investor anxiety is also heightened by an upcoming House vote on a stopgap funding bill, adding to market volatility.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 8.3% from its peak, raising concerns about the tech sector’s performance compared to the S&P 500. Investors are bracing for further shifts as policy decisions unfold in the coming days amid fears of reduced earnings across sectors due to new tariffs and declining consumer confidence.

CANADIAN PRIDE Surge: US Businesses Face Tough Times

01 April 2025 — The “Buy Canadian” movement is gaining steam, impacting U.S. companies looking to expand into Canada. Demeter Fragrances, a Pennsylvania perfume maker, stopped its expansion plans due to changing Canadian tastes. CEO Mark Crames noted a growing dislike for American products in Canada.

This trend isn’t just about perfumes but spans different sectors like drinks and citrus fruits from the U.S. Canadian businesses are thriving as local goods win over consumers. Jason McAllister of Irving Personal Care reported their Canadian-made diapers’ weekly shipments have quadrupled, showing this shift in buyer behavior.

The movement worries U.S.-based consumer companies that depended on the Canadian market for growth chances. Executives are now rethinking strategies as they face more difficulties entering the Canadian retail space amid rising protectionist feelings.

SINGAPORE’S Business Boom: Small Firms’ Confidence Soars to New Heights

24 March 2025 — Confidence among small businesses in Singapore has hit its highest point since 2019, says a survey by CPA Australia. The Asia-Pacific Small Business Survey shows that 62% of these businesses expect growth this year, marking the most optimism since 2018. This positive trend is expected to continue into 2025.

Greg Unsworth from CPA Australia notes that this confidence reflects not just business prospects but also a brighter economic environment. The survey highlights a big jump in technology use, with more firms embracing online and digital payments.

In 2024, an impressive 63% of small businesses reported earning over 10% of their revenue from online sales, up from just 36% in 2019. This shift shows a strong move towards digital transformation among Singapore’s small enterprises.

TRUMP’S Bold Move: How NEW Tariffs Rattle the Stock Market

15 March 2025 — U.S. stocks fell sharply as President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico took effect, sparking economic fears. Investors worry about the potential impact amid existing uncertainties. Analysts warn of a possible recession, urging caution in market activities.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite saw major drops, hitting technology stocks hard. Companies across sectors are revising forecasts due to these new trade policies. Experts suggest these tariffs could worsen inflation and reduce consumer spending soon.

These tariffs are part of Trump’s broader trade agenda to boost U.S. manufacturing but risk retaliatory actions that may harm American businesses and consumers. The market remains bearish as analysts closely watch for policy fallout effects.

SENSEX SURGE: Investors Cheer as Market Confidence Grows

10 March 2025 — The SENSEX index opened at 74,474.98 on March 9, 2025, marking a positive start to the trading day. This opening was slightly above its previous close of 74,332.58, signaling growing investor trust in the market’s stability.

As trading progressed, the index gained over 350 points, hitting a high of 74,713.17. This upward trend shows optimism among investors and suggests a strong economic outlook for India.

Growth in the SENSEX is often seen as an indicator of economic health and can positively influence global markets. Investors will be closely watching to see if this momentum continues in the coming days.

NEW DUTY Shock: Retail Prices to Skyrocket, Consumers Worried

04 March 2025 — Retailers are raising concerns about a looming price surge. A new 25% duty on exports from Mexico and Canada is set to increase costs. This change could lead to higher prices for shoppers almost immediately.

The duty affects a wide range of goods, impacting everyday items. Retailers warn this could disrupt supply chains and limit product availability. Shoppers should brace for potential price hikes at local stores.

Efforts to ease these effects are underway, but challenges remain tough. Businesses might need new strategies to handle rising costs. The economic impact of this policy change deserves close attention from policymakers and the public alike.

INDIA’S Real Estate Boom: Why Buyers Shouldn’T Panic

03 March 2025 — The real estate market in INDIA is seeing a big rise in prices across major cities. But experts say buyers shouldn’t lose hope.

There are still chances for buyers to get good deals because the market might cool down, not crash.

This year is a special time for buyers to use their bargaining skills well. For more insights, watch “Let’s Get REal with Manisha Natarajan.”

GOLD Prices PLUMMET Amid Trade WAR Jitters

26 February 2025 — Gold prices took a big hit on Tuesday as traders cashed in profits with US Treasury bond yields falling. The XAU/USD pair saw a noticeable drop during the North American session. President Trump’s tariff threats against Mexico and Canada added to market uncertainty, affecting investor choices.

The decline in gold prices marks a change from the previous session’s record highs, driven by fears about Trump’s trade policies. Investors are reacting to possible instability in global markets, leading them to take profits.

This market shift highlights ongoing worries about economic stability and trade relations under the current administration. As traders adjust their positions, gold’s recent rally seems to be losing momentum amid these geopolitical tensions.

NVIDIA EARNINGS Shock: What It Means for Inflation and Your Wallet

24 February 2025 — The optimism that marked the start of the year for U.S. businesses has faded. Now, economic uncertainty, stalled business activity, and rising prices dominate the scene. Investors are especially focused on Nvidia’s earnings this week to understand the state of the AI market.

Nvidia’s report is vital as tech stocks have struggled in early 2025. The company’s performance could reveal broader market trends and investor feelings about AI technologies. Other companies reporting include Anheuser-Busch InBev, Advance Auto Parts, and Salesforce among others.

Chris Williamson from S&P Global Market Intelligence notes a shift to a gloomier economic outlook. This change highlights concerns about inflation affecting business activities across sectors. As February 2025 continues, these reports will be key in understanding economic directions and investment strategies moving forward.

INSOLVENCIES SURGE: Businesses Face Economic Pressures in England and Wales

18 February 2025 — Insolvencies in England and Wales have jumped from December 2024 to January 2025. Law firm Fladgate LLP reports a significant rise in administrations. The economic climate is tough for businesses, especially in retail, which already struggles with slim profit margins. The upcoming Spring Budget might introduce tax hikes that could further pressure businesses and consumer spending.

ANGLO AMERICAN’s $500 Million NICKEL Sale Marks Strategic SHIFT

Anglo American has sold its nickel business for $500 million as part of a strategic shift to focus on copper and iron. This sale follows the disposal of its steelmaking coal business, bringing total asset sales to about $5.3 billion. CEO Duncan Wanblad highlighted that these moves are meant to streamline the company’s portfolio and boost value.

COLORADO BILL DEMANDS Climate Transparency from Businesses

Colorado will require businesses to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions starting in 2028, aligning with similar efforts by other states. This legislation responds to past criticisms about inconsistent sustainability reporting practices across industries. The goal is more transparency and accountability regarding environmental impacts from companies within the state.

The IRS plans major layoffs during tax season due to budget cuts initiated by the Trump administration, which may affect its

Bank of England’s RATE CUT Sends Shockwaves Through Markets

07 February 2025 — The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, causing the Pound Sterling to drop sharply against the US Dollar. This move shows worries about economic growth and inflation. Experts expect more rate cuts in 2025, signaling a careful approach to monetary policy.

Market analysts warn this could affect savings rates and borrowing costs, urging people and businesses to rethink financial plans. The immediate effect saw GBP/USD fall by 0.93%, hitting a session low of 1.2359.

This has increased market volatility, raising concerns about future economic stability in the UK. As uncertainty grows, many wonder how these changes will impact their finances and investments moving forward.

UPS STOCKS Plummet: Amazon Partnership Slashed, Investors Shocked

31 January 2025 — United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) shares have dropped sharply after announcing a major cut in its business dealings with Amazon.com Inc. UPS plans to reduce its low-margin Amazon business by half, surprising analysts and impacting the company’s revenue projections. Daniel Imbro from Stephens Inc. noted the unexpected nature of this rapid shift in strategy.

The company has projected $89 billion in revenue for 2025, falling short of analysts’ expectations of $94.9 billion, following a reported $91.1 billion for 2024. UPS is focusing on higher-margin sectors like healthcare, aiming for $20 billion in revenue from this segment by 2026 as it raises prices and implements surcharges to offset losses from Amazon’s reduced contribution.

Amazon accounted for 11.8% of UPS’s revenue last year, making the decision to slash this partnership significant amid weak demand recovery for parcel services this year. This strategic pivot highlights UPS’s efforts to stabilize its financial outlook by prioritizing more profitable ventures over volume-driven partnerships with lower margins like Amazon’s delivery services.;

UK BUSINESSES in TROUBLE: Financial Distress Hits Record Levels

25 January 2025 — A recent report reveals a sharp rise in UK businesses facing severe financial distress. The hospitality, leisure, and retail sectors are hit hardest, with construction also struggling. From September to December last year, the number of distressed businesses jumped by 50%, reaching 46,583.

Ric Traynor of Begbies Traynor highlighted the challenges these businesses face as they navigate early 2025 hurdles. Many find it nearly impossible to overcome current economic obstacles. This situation stresses the urgent need for strategic solutions and support for these industries.

HONEYWELL’s BOLD MOVE: Strategic SPLIT on the Horizon

Honeywell CEO Vimal Kapur is leading a reinvention plan amid shifting market valuations for industrial giants. The company plans to spin off its advanced material business into a new public entity by late 2025 or early 2026. Honeywell might split into two independent entities focusing on automation and aerospace, though no formal announcement has been made yet.

Since late October, Honeywell’s shares have risen by 8%, showing investor optimism about these potential changes. This strategic shift aims to better position Honeywell in a competitive market while maximizing shareholder value through focused operations in distinct sectors.

STOCK MARKET Chaos: Inflation Fears Shake Investor Confidence

13 January 2025 — The U.S. STOCK market took a big hit today, with major indexes dropping over 3% due to rising inflation fears. Investors worry about possible Federal Reserve policy changes after high inflation numbers came out earlier this week. This is one of the steepest drops in months, shaking confidence that had been boosted by strong job reports.

Bond yields are up, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield hitting about 4.1%, its highest since late 2023, signaling increased inflation expectations. Big tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft saw sell-offs over 5%, adding to the market slump. Analysts warn that ongoing inflation might push the Federal Reserve to rethink interest rate policies, possibly leading to more hikes instead of cuts.

The decline comes after a strong holiday shopping season that initially suggested steady economic growth but is now overshadowed by ongoing inflation problems. Retail and consumer sectors face rising costs and reduced spending, making investors cautious in these areas. Companies like Walmart and Target report higher holiday sales but shrinking profit margins due to inflation pressures, prompting them to rethink annual forecasts.

Banks like JPMorgan are bracing for possible loan defaults as consumers struggle with higher living costs by setting aside more reserves. Market analysts expect continued volatility as investors digest new inflation data and Fed policy implications.;

ECONOMISTS SOUND Alarm: 2025 Financial Crisis Looms

07 January 2025 — Economists are raising alarms about a potential financial crisis in 2025. David Kelly from JPMorgan warns that high stock market valuations pose a significant risk despite strong economic indicators like low layoffs and cooling inflation. Investors should be cautious as these inflated values could lead to a sudden market downturn.

Current economic signs show paychecks growing faster than prices, and stable gas prices offer optimism for Americans. However, the high asset valuations remain a critical concern for analysts. They suggest preparing for increased market volatility throughout 2025, with a crisis potentially emerging early in the year.

These warnings have led to cautious trading, especially in tech stocks that previously drove gains. Traders are balancing concern with optimism, causing fluctuating stock prices in early sessions.

This situation may prompt investors to reassess their portfolios and strategies as they navigate potential shifts due to changing market conditions. The economic concerns highlighted could significantly influence investor behavior and market dynamics moving forward.

WALL STREET Surges: Oil Price Drop Sparks Investor Optimism

05 January 2025 — Wall Street is climbing today, driven by a 6% DROP in oil prices. Investors are gearing up for a crucial week of earnings reports from major tech firms.

Tech and energy stocks are leading the way, with analysts hopeful about tech giants’ futures. However, there is still caution about the overall economic outlook.

The fall in oil prices comes from oversupply worries and easing geopolitical tensions, affecting inflation rates and consumer spending that Wall Street closely monitors.

While U.S. markets rise, Asian markets face recession fears linked to U.S. economic performance, showing global interconnectedness and financial volatility.

GREEN AGENDA Hits Hard: Ofgem Warns of Financial Burden on Low-Income Consumers

13 March 2024 — The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) sounded an alarm on Monday. It cautioned that the shift towards a “Net Zero” carbon emissions economy could unfairly impact low-income consumers. These individuals might lack the financial resources to acquire government-approved technology or modify their lifestyle habits.

In the past year alone, debts from energy consumers have skyrocketed by 50%, amassing a total of £3 billion. Ofgem voiced grave concerns about struggling households’ limited resilience to future price shocks. The regulator also highlighted that the burden of recovering bad debts could pose serious threats to the retail energy sector.

Economic difficulties have already pushed British consumers into rationing their energy consumption. This has led to “harms associated with living in a cold, damp home,” potentially triggering an increase in mental health issues rates.

Tim Jarvis, Ofgem’s director general, underscored the necessity for a long-term strategy to manage escalating debt levels and shield struggling consumers from future price shocks. He mentioned that measures such as altering standing charges for prepayment meter customers and tightening requirements on suppliers had been implemented.

UK INFLATION TUMBLES to 39%: Central Bank May Slash Rates Sooner Than Predicted

21 December 2023 — The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently announced a surprising drop in UK inflation to 3.9% in November, a decrease from the previous month’s 4.6%. This dip, larger than what financial markets had forecasted, marks the lowest inflation level since September 2021.

This decline is primarily attributed to falling fuel and food prices according to the ONS. However, despite this optimistic news, the Bank of England’s primary interest rate remains at a staggering high of 5.25%, not seen for over a decade and a half.

Governor Andrew Bailey hinted that this stringent interest rate policy might continue for some time. Yet Samuel Tombs, chief U.K economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests an alternative view — that this sharp fall in inflation could trigger an earlier-than-expected cut in interest rates; perhaps as early as the first half of next year.

While elevated interest rates initially helped curb inflation sparked by supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they have also put pressure on consumer spending and slowed economic growth. As such there are growing worries that maintaining high rates could inflict unnecessary damage on the economy.

UK Inflation DEFIES Predictions, STAYS at 67%: What’s Next for the Economy?

18 October 2023 — The UK’s inflation rate held steady at 6.7% in September, flying in the face of economists’ predictions for a slight decrease. The Office for National Statistics highlighted that while food and drink prices dipped, they were counterbalanced by an uptick in fuel costs.

This persistent inflation rate is more than triple the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Despite this, it is not expected that the bank will hike interest rates during its November policy meeting. Instead, it seems set to keep its main borrowing rate at a peak not seen in 15 years — a hefty 5.25%.

James Smith from the Resolution Foundation think tank offered his perspective on this economic puzzle: “For now, progress on reducing inflation has hit a roadblock.” He anticipates a significant drop to below 5% next month as energy prices are projected to fall for most consumers.

In response to price surges triggered by pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — both factors contributing heavily to increased food and energy costs — the Bank of England has been steadily cranking up interest rates from near zero levels.