THREAD: election polls

FEDERAL Election MONITORING Cuts: Security Risks Soar

17 February 2025 — The dismantling of federal election monitoring efforts has sparked concern among lawmakers and national security experts. Critics argue this move opens the door for foreign interference in upcoming elections. The lack of strong oversight could lead to vulnerabilities being exploited, prompting bipartisan talks on restoring effective monitoring mechanisms.

Democratic officials call the decision irresponsible, claiming it threatens democracy by reducing transparency in election processes. They urge a recommitment to safeguarding electoral integrity. Republican leaders are divided, with some supporting reduced federal involvement to limit overreach.

This development has raised alarms and prompted congressional hearings to assess the impact on election security. Various stakeholders call for immediate action to restore monitoring capabilities against potential foreign manipulation. As critical electoral events approach, the need for reinstating protective measures becomes clear.

ROMANIAN ELECTION Shock: Russian Interference Sparks Outrage

11 January 2025 — Calin Georgescu, a populist candidate, was leading Romania’s election before it was nullified over alleged Russian interference. He gained support by embracing conservative values and criticizing left-wing figures like George Soros. Despite modest campaign spending, Georgescu’s social media presence drew in religious conservatives and those frustrated with government corruption.

Romania’s Constitutional Court canceled the election after intelligence reports accused Russia of using fake TikTok accounts to back Georgescu. The reports also claimed a cyberattack on the election system. These allegations led to an investigation into “electoral crimes,” sparking widespread protests from Georgescu supporters who believed the election was stolen.

Protesters flooded the streets, waving Romanian flags and demanding their votes be counted in a second round of elections. They denounced President Klaus Iohannis’s administration as illegitimate and called for his arrest, labeling government officials as “traitors.” The political unrest underscores deep divisions within Romania over foreign influence and electoral integrity.

TRUMP’S Triumph: Disillusioned Voters Reject Harris-Biden Agenda

06 November 2024 — Former President Donald Trump has made a comeback to the White House, highlighting widespread dissatisfaction with Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden’s nearly four-year term. Many voters, unhappy with America’s path, embraced Trump’s bold approach. AP VoteCast showed about 3 in 10 voters wanted a complete government overhaul.

Economic concerns were key in Trump’s victory, overshadowing issues like democracy and abortion protections favored by Harris’ supporters. Voters worried about the economy supported stronger immigration enforcement and believed Trump was better suited to tackle economic challenges. This sentiment was strong in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Even though he won the electoral college, some voters had reservations about Trump’s potential use of power. A notable number expressed concern over possible authoritarianism under his leadership. Yet more than 1 in 10 concerned voters still backed him despite these fears.

Inflation anxiety was a major concern nationwide as families felt their financial situations worsening since the last election cycle. The rising cost of living remained an urgent issue for many Americans struggling with higher prices on essentials like groceries and housing costs. These economic pressures greatly boosted Trump’s appeal among disenchanted voters seeking change.

TRUMP’S Surge: Why Hispanic Voters Are Embracing Him

06 November 2024 — CBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony Salvanto, highlighted Donald Trump’s rising support among Hispanic neighborhoods in Philadelphia. Despite Trump’s past rhetoric, many Hispanics feel he isn’t targeting them negatively. This perception is shifting some Latino voters toward Trump.

A poll revealed that two-thirds of surveyed Latinos believe Trump wasn’t referring to them when discussing immigrants. Additionally, half of foreign-born Latinos shared this sentiment. These findings suggest a growing acceptance of Trump among Hispanic communities.

While Latinos predominantly lean Democrat, Trump’s messaging on the economy resonates with many in this demographic. His approach appears to offer a sense of belonging similar to that extended to white voters. This strategy could be pivotal for his future campaigns as he continues to engage with diverse voter groups.

HISPANIC Voters TURN to Trump: Discontent with Biden’s Policies

23 October 2024 — A recent poll from The New York Times shows 35% of Hispanic voters feel Donald Trump’s policies helped them, compared to just 22% for President Biden. This suggests a preference for Trump’s approach over the current administration. The data raises questions about President Biden’s absence from campaign trails alongside Vice President Harris.

Munoz emphasized growth and improvement in key economic areas under Vice President Harris’s vision, claiming it resonates with Latino voters. However, he acknowledged the challenge of effectively reaching these communities through traditional polling methods. Munoz argued that Latino voters seek candidates who promise change rather than maintaining the status quo associated with Trump.

Burman highlighted that only 20% of Hispanic voters rate the economy as excellent or good, while 80% describe it as fair or poor — indicating dissatisfaction with current economic conditions. Despite this, Munoz remained optimistic about influencing voter perception in the remaining days before elections. He stressed focusing on ground-level engagement over relying solely on polling numbers to sway opinions among Hispanic constituents.

TRUMP And HARRIS Neck-And-Neck: What’s Behind the Poll Shocker?

15 October 2024 — Recent polls show a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with both candidates nearly tied. Just last month, Harris was ahead in election and favorability ratings. Now, her lead is gone, sparking questions about why voters are changing their minds.

NBC’s Savannah Guthrie talked with analyst Steve Kornacki about this shift. He explained how Harris’s favorability ratings have reversed. Last month, she had a 48% positive rating compared to Trump’s steady numbers. Now her positive rating has fallen to 43%, while her negative rating jumped to 49%.

Kornacki noted that this change brings Harris’s ratings closer to Trump’s figures. He also mentioned an interesting twist about public views on Trump’s presidency. Recent polling shows that 44% of voters think Trump’s policies helped their families more than during his time in office.

REFORMIST VICTORY: Iran’s New President Promises Change

06 July 2024 — Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran’s runoff presidential election, defeating hard-liner Saeed Jalili. Pezeshkian promised to reach out to the West and ease enforcement on the mandatory headscarf law. He secured 16.3 million votes compared to Jalili’s 13.5 million in an election with a 49.6% turnout.

Pezeshkian assured no radical changes to Iran’s Shiite theocracy, acknowledging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the final authority. Despite his modest aims, he faces challenges from hard-liners and ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Western concerns over Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Supporters celebrated in Tehran and other cities as Pezeshkian’s lead grew over Jalili. The heart surgeon and longtime lawmaker addressed journalists at Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s mausoleum, emphasizing his commitment to honesty and fulfilling promises made during his campaign.

Pezeshkian’s victory comes at a delicate time with high tensions in the Mideast and an upcoming U.S. election that could impact relations between Tehran and Washington. His win wasn’t a landslide, indicating he must navigate Iran’s complex internal politics carefully as he lacks experience in high-level security roles.

BRITISH Election Sees NEW Voter ID LAW in Action

04 July 2024 — Polling stations across the UK opened this morning at 7 AM and will close at 10 PM. Ipsos pollsters are gathering exit poll data to provide an early picture of the election results. Detailed seat-specific results will only be available in the early hours of Friday.

British and Irish citizens, along with some Commonwealth immigrants, are eligible to vote if they are over 18. This election marks the first time voters must show legal identification to cast their ballots in person, a measure aimed at reducing voter fraud. The Electoral Commission has approved 22 forms of ID, including passports and driving licenses.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty were seen voting at Kirby Sigston Village Hall today. Reporting on the election is restricted while polling places are open, with broadcasters banned from discussing outcomes or publishing polls until voting ends. Violating these rules can result in imprisonment for news editors.

LABOUR PARTY Surges Amid UK Election Betting Scandal

29 June 2024 — The U.K. general election on July 4 is approaching, with the Labour Party expected to defeat Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives. Polls indicate Labour leader Keir Starmer will likely form the next government.

The Conservative campaign has struggled, facing allegations of election betting involving figures close to Sunak. This scandal has further dampened their already lackluster efforts.

In the U.K., the prime minister decides election dates, unlike fixed schedules in countries like the U.S. This unique system has led to a market for predicting election dates and outcomes.

Police officers and Conservative insiders are under investigation for their involvement in this betting scandal, adding another layer of controversy as over 50 countries prepare for elections in 2024.

GLOBAL Elections SHAKE-UP: Major Voter Impact in Coming Days

28 June 2024 — In the coming days, voters in countries like Mauritania, Mongolia, Iran, Britain, and France will head to the polls. These elections could significantly impact global politics amid ongoing conflicts and economic concerns.

Iran faces a critical election following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seeks a successor among hard-liners Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian.

National elections this year are happening in over 50 countries with significant political changes in India, Mexico, and South Africa. Russia remains unchanged despite global shifts.

POPULIST PVV Surge: Historic Gains in European Parliament

07 June 2024 — The Party for Freedom (PVV) is set to secure at least seven seats in the European Parliament, according to exit polls. This marks a significant gain from zero seats in 2019. Ipsos estimates show this as the largest gain for any Dutch party and a historic high for PVV.

Despite this success, the Green Left and Labour Party alliance is predicted to win eight seats, one fewer than their combined total in 2019. Geert Wilders expressed optimism about potentially gaining an additional seat when official results are released. He stated, “We have never had seven seats before… We are by far the biggest winner.”

Wilders believes this result signals a broader trend across Europe against mass migration policies. He said that Eurosceptical voices will grow stronger within the European Parliament, sending a clear message to Brussels elites.

Tom Van Grieken of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang echoed Wilders’ sentiment, calling it a “very hopeful signal” for similar parties across Europe. He noted that what happened in the Netherlands could also happen in Flanders on Sunday.

SUNAK SHOCKS Nation: Calls Surprise Election for July 4

23 May 2024 — British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has shocked many by calling a general election for July 4. Known for being thorough and evidence-led, this move contrasts sharply with his usual cautious approach.

Opinion polls suggest that Sunak’s Conservative Party is trailing behind the opposition Labour Party, which could spell trouble for his leadership. Sunak took office in October 2022, replacing Liz Truss after her economic policies caused market turmoil.

Sunak had warned against Truss’s unfunded tax cuts, predicting economic havoc that indeed followed. His rise to power was rapid, becoming Britain’s first leader of color and youngest prime minister in over two centuries at age 42.

Sunak previously served as Treasury chief during the coronavirus pandemic, where he introduced an unprecedented economic support package. Now at age 44, he faces a critical test with this upcoming election amid challenging political landscapes.

UK-US SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP Faces Turbulence With Trump And Labour

18 May 2024 — Polls indicate Donald Trump may return to the White House, while the Labour Party is projected to take power in the UK. This potential shift could strain the “special relationship” between the two nations.

Labour leaders are softening their stance on Trump, recognizing the need for cooperation with Washington. However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan is pushing for open criticism of Trump, labeling him a “racist,” “sexist,” and "homophobe.

Khan insists that maintaining a special relationship means calling out such views. Despite his city’s crime issues and recent re-election, Khan remains vocal against another Trump presidency. He argues against welcoming Trump with state honors and claims many Republicans share his concerns about Trump’s return.

SOUTH KOREAN Election Shocker: Voters Lean Left in Historic Turn

11 April 2024 — South Korean voters, upset by the economic slump, are showing their disapproval towards President Yoon Suk-yeol and his ruling People Power Party (PPP). Early exit polls indicate a dramatic tilt in the National Assembly, with the opposition DP/DUP coalition on track to win between 168 and 193 of the 300 seats. This would leave Yoon’s PPP and its partners trailing with just 87-111 seats.

A record-breaking turnout of 67 percent — the highest for a midterm election since 1992 — reflects widespread voter engagement. South Korea’s unique proportional representation system aims to give smaller parties a chance but has resulted in a crowded field that confuses many voters.

PPP leader Han Dong-hoon has publicly recognized the disappointing exit poll figures. He pledged to honor the electorate’s decision and wait for the final tally. The election results could mark a pivotal change in South Korea’s political landscape, hinting at broader shifts ahead.

This electoral outcome underscores growing public discontent with current economic policies and signals a desire for change among South Korean voters, potentially reshaping the nation’s policy direction in years to come.

TRUMP SURGES Ahead in Michigan: Biden’s Struggle to Secure Base Exposed

25 March 2024 — A recent trial ballot in Michigan has revealed a surprising lead for Trump over Biden, with 47 percent favoring the former president compared to 44 percent for the incumbent. This result falls within the survey’s ±3 percent margin of error, leaving nine percent of voters still undecided.

In a more complex five-way trial ballot test, Trump maintains his lead at 44 percent against Biden’s 42 percent. The remaining votes are split among independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, and independent Cornel West.

Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research, attributes Trump’s lead to Biden’s lackluster support from African Americans and younger voters. He forecasts a nail-biting contest ahead as the victory will likely hinge on which candidate can rally their base more effectively.

In a head-to-head choice between Trump and Biden, an overwhelming 90 percent of Republican Michiganders back Trump while only 84 percent of Democrats support Biden. This poll report underscores an uncomfortable situation for Biden as he loses a significant 12 percent chunk of his vote to former President Trump.

ANC on SHAKY Ground: South Africa’s Opposition Parties Gaining Momentum

14 March 2024 — Recent polling data indicates a potential shift in South Africa’s political scene, the likes of which haven’t been seen since 1994. The ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), has experienced a decline in support from 44% to 39% since November 2022.

On the other hand, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) has seen its share rise from 23% to a notable 27%. A newcomer on the scene, the MK Party, has made an impressive debut with a surprising 13%, while support for the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party has dwindled to just 10%.

This changing landscape could potentially pave the way for DA to form a majority coalition with other parties excluding ANC and EFF. This tactic proved successful in Cape Town’s municipal elections back in 2006. Despite ANC’s historical appeal due to its instrumental role in ending apartheid, ongoing issues such as electricity and water shortages, high crime rates, and rampant corruption have strained voters’ loyalty.

The shifting political climate suggests that voters are seeking change and are willing to look beyond traditional party lines. This could lead to significant changes in South Africa’s political landscape moving forward.

TRUMP’S COMEBACK: Leads Biden in Hypothetical 2024 Race, Reveals Michigan Poll

15 February 2024 — A recent poll from Michigan, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, reveals a surprising turn of events. In a hypothetical race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Trump takes a two-point lead. The poll shows 47% of registered voters backing Trump while Biden comes close with 45%. This narrow lead falls within the poll’s margin of error.

This represents an impressive swing towards Trump by 11 points compared to a July 2020 Fox News Beacon Research and Shaw Company poll. During that time, Biden held the upper hand with 49% support versus Trump’s 40%. In this latest survey, only one percent would back another candidate while three percent would abstain from voting. An intriguing four percent remain undecided.

The plot thickens when the field is expanded to include independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent Cornel West. Here, Trump’s lead over Biden grows to five points suggesting his appeal remains strong among voters even in a wider field of candidates.

SHOCKING Truth Revealed: MAJORITY of Americans Support Border Wall, New Poll Discloses

30 January 2024 — A recent poll surveying 40,513 U.S. adults has revealed a surprising fact: half of the respondents are in favor of building a border wall. This majority includes not only typical conservative demographics but also groups such as black and Hispanic Americans, women, and independents.

The data shows that 45% of black Americans polled support the idea of a wall, compared to just 30% who oppose it. Hispanic support for the wall is at 42%, marginally outnumbering those against it at 40%. These figures could potentially cause concern for Democrats who have traditionally relied on these demographics for support.

The poll also reveals significant backing from women and independents. Among female respondents, supporters outnumber opponents by nine points (45-36). Independents show an even stronger pro-wall sentiment with an eleven-point lead (44-33). Support appears to be widespread across all regional demographics — even in the traditionally Democrat-leaning Northeast where backing stands at a surprising 49%.

Leading this wave of support is the South with over half (51%) favoring border wall construction. These findings could be game-changers in political strategies as they indicate broad-based endorsement for what has been primarily seen as a MAGA Republican priority.

YOUTHFUL Hostility Towards Israel EXPOSED: What the Recent Polls Are Telling Us

17 December 2023 — A survey conducted on December 13-14 involving 2,034 registered voters revealed a disturbing trend. Young people displayed significantly more hostility towards Israel than any other age group. This finding coincides with a rise in antisemitic protests on university campuses and major cities.

The poll also unveiled some seemingly contradictory responses among young participants. A substantial 73% agreed that the October 7 attack was an act of terrorism, while 66% concurred that Hamas’s intent was genocidal. Moreover, an overwhelming majority of 76% believed that Hamas had committed crimes against women, including rape.

Interestingly, young people seemed more informed than older generations on one particular issue — Palestinian support for Hamas. A majority of those aged between 18-24 (64%) believed that “Hamas is supported by the majority of Palestinians in Gaza”, compared to just 34% overall. This perception aligns with recent polls indicating broad Palestinian backing for Hamas.

Joel B. Pollak, Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot reported these survey results.

LABOUR PARTY Triumphs: Shocking Upset in Special Elections Reshapes UK Political Landscape

21 October 2023 — In a surprising turn of events, Britain’s Labour Party has managed to secure two Parliament seats previously dominated by the Conservatives. This unexpected victory took place in the special elections held in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire, with a significant number of voters switching their loyalty to Labour.

This win strengthens Labour’s standing as the primary challenger for next year’s national election. It also piles pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to rejuvenate his party’s reputation. Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, proclaimed that his party is “redrawing the political map”.

The victories were marked by Sarah Edwards’ success in Tamworth and Alistair Strathern’s triumph in Mid-Bedfordshire, both overcoming substantial Conservative majorities from 2019. However, it should be noted that voter turnout was relatively low at 36% and 44% respectively. Additionally, these elections took place under unique circumstances due to resignations from former lawmakers.