THREAD: shifting alliances
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News Timeline
TRUMP’S Bold Return: Global Alliances Shaken
— President Donald Trump has re-entered the White House, quickly overturning Biden-era policies and pulling out of major international agreements. His actions have left global partners unsure about their standing. Allies and adversaries are closely watching how Trump’s second term will unfold on the world stage.
In his first 100 hours, Trump signed executive orders, including one labeling Mexican cartels as foreign terror organizations. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago and attended his inauguration, supporting his push for increased NATO defense spending. Meloni is seen as a key EU contact amid fears of a potential trade war with Europe under Trump’s leadership.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a long-time ally of Trump, expressed excitement for Trump’s return to office but missed the inauguration due to scheduling conflicts. Orban sees this as an opportunity to challenge what he calls Brussels’ "left-liberal oligarchy.
Argentina’s President Javier Milei seeks stronger U.S.-Argentina relations under Trump’s presidency. At the Davos World Economic Forum, Milei hinted at leaving the Mercosur trade bloc if it means securing a new trade deal with the U.S., highlighting shifting alliances in response to Trump’s policies.
EUROPEAN Allies RALLY to Defend Ukraine as Trump Era Looms
— London, Paris, and Warsaw are forming a core group to support Ukraine against Russia, anticipating changes in U.S. policy under a possible Trump presidency. Donald Trump hasn’t detailed his plans for ending the conflict but has mentioned options like land swaps or demilitarized zones. These strategies clash with Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia.
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer met French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris to discuss defense matters and support for Ukraine. They want outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles against Russia before any Trump policy shift. The U.S., however, worries this could escalate tensions with Moscow significantly.
A UK government source stressed the urgency of maximizing efforts before Trump’s potential presidency begins on January 20th. Starmer and Macron aim to strengthen Ukraine’s position as winter nears and after Trump’s re-election announcement days ago, despite financial challenges faced by both the UK and France amid budgetary issues.
Poland, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusks, is also increasing its role in this emerging anti-Trump alliance within Europe. Meetings between Polish leaders and European counterparts are planned to involve NATO members from Scandinavia as well.
— Republicans Shift: Harris Gains Unexpected Endorsements Recent endorsements of Kamala Harris from within the Republican establishment signal a notable evolution in party dynamics
— Saudi Arabia Shifts Strategy: Spending Signals Move Away from Being Financial Reservoir Saudi Arabia’s recent spending patterns indicate a significant departure from its traditional role as a financial reservoir
— Democratic Party Strategists Sense Déjà Vu in Recent Events Democratic Party strategists are experiencing a sense of déjà vu as recent events unfold
— **Leftists Secure Majority in 2024 French Legislative Election, Macron’s Alliance Trails** Initial projections for the 2024 French legislative election reveal leftists clinching the most seats, with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance coming in second and the far right trailing in third place
— **Southeast Asia Emerges as Prime Supply Chain Diversification Hub Amid US-China Tensions** Companies increasingly turn to Southeast Asia for diversifying supply chains amidst escalating tensions between the US and China
JAPAN Strengthens WESTERN Ties: Set to Boost Aukus Alliance
— During a notable visit to Washington, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio hinted at Japan’s upcoming role in the AUKUS alliance. Reports suggest Japan is “cleared to join,” marking a significant step in defense collaborations between Japan and Western powers.
The AUKUS alliance aims to enhance Australia’s submarine capabilities and is now eyeing Japan for its advanced technology program. This includes electronic warfare and AI development, with UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps hinting at high-tech cooperation with Japan.
Japan’s entry into the alliance is poised to advance military technologies like hypersonic missiles and cyber defense systems. Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the importance of U.S.-Japan collaboration on emerging technologies during his Congress address, highlighting its role in global security dynamics.
This expansion signifies a major leap in uniting Western defense efforts against global threats, promoting peace and stability through technological advancement and strategic cooperation among these nations.
ANC on SHAKY Ground: South Africa’s Opposition Parties Gaining Momentum
— Recent polling data indicates a potential shift in South Africa’s political scene, the likes of which haven’t been seen since 1994. The ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), has experienced a decline in support from 44% to 39% since November 2022.
On the other hand, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) has seen its share rise from 23% to a notable 27%. A newcomer on the scene, the MK Party, has made an impressive debut with a surprising 13%, while support for the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party has dwindled to just 10%.
This changing landscape could potentially pave the way for DA to form a majority coalition with other parties excluding ANC and EFF. This tactic proved successful in Cape Town’s municipal elections back in 2006. Despite ANC’s historical appeal due to its instrumental role in ending apartheid, ongoing issues such as electricity and water shortages, high crime rates, and rampant corruption have strained voters’ loyalty.
The shifting political climate suggests that voters are seeking change and are willing to look beyond traditional party lines. This could lead to significant changes in South Africa’s political landscape moving forward.
NEW ZEALAND’S Bold Move: Eying Aukus Partnership for Stronger Defense Ties with Australia
— New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, is contemplating a strategic move. He’s considering joining the AUKUS partnership to strengthen defense ties with Australia. The AUKUS agreement is a tripartite pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It aims to counteract China’s expanding military influence.
Since his election in October, Luxon made his first overseas visit to Australia. There he and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese agreed on aligning their defense strategies. To coordinate these efforts further, their foreign ministers are set to meet in 2024.
Luxon has expressed particular interest in “AUKUS Pillar 2”. This pillar emphasizes developing and sharing advanced military capabilities like artificial intelligence and electronic warfare systems. Luxon believes that this partnership could be a catalyst for stability and peace within the region.
The U.S. and Britain have already committed to providing Australia with U.S.-powered nuclear submarines under the AUKUS agreement. If New Zealand joins this alliance, it could potentially fortify this tripartite pact against China’s growing regional power.
EXPOSED: BIDEN and Elites’ Unsettling Alliance with China
— President Joe Biden’s recent actions have stirred up a storm of controversy. His apparent dismissal of the idea of “decoupling” from China is causing concern among conservatives. These revelations come from a new book, Controligarchs: Exposing the Billionaire Class, Their Secret Deals, and the Globalist Plot to Dominate Your Life.
The book suggests that global elites and politicians like Biden and California Governor Gavin Newsom are actively pushing for a closer resemblance between the U.S. and its Communist adversary. It alleges that these individuals view Beijing’s elites not as threats or rivals but as business partners.
Among those named in these claims are influential figures such as BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman. These business leaders were reportedly present at a dinner honoring Chinese Communist Party Leader Xi Jinping where they stood in applause for Chairman Xi.
This revelation comes at a time when concerns over China’s influence on global politics are growing. It highlights the urgent need for transparency in dealings between American leaders and foreign powers.
Video
HAMAS OFFERS Truce: A Bold Shift Towards Political Transformation
— In a revealing interview, Khalil al-Hayya, a top official from Hamas, announced the group’s readiness to halt hostilities for at least five years. He detailed that Hamas would disarm and rebrand as a political entity upon the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders. This represents a drastic pivot from their previous stance focused on the destruction of Israel.
Al-Hayya elaborated that this transformation hinges on forming a sovereign state that includes both Gaza and the West Bank. He discussed plans for merging with the Palestine Liberation Organization to establish a unified government and transforming their armed wing into a national army once statehood is achieved.
However, skepticism remains about Israel’s receptiveness to these terms. After lethal attacks on October 7, Israel has toughened its position against Hamas and continues to oppose any Palestinian state formed from territories captured in 1967.
This shift by Hamas could either open new avenues for peace or be met with stiff resistance, highlighting ongoing complexities in Israeli-Palestinian relations.
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