THREAD: stock market soars prediction accuracy

TRUMP’S Surge: Why Hispanic Voters Are Embracing Him

06 November 2024 — CBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony Salvanto, highlighted Donald Trump’s rising support among Hispanic neighborhoods in Philadelphia. Despite Trump’s past rhetoric, many Hispanics feel he isn’t targeting them negatively. This perception is shifting some Latino voters toward Trump.

A poll revealed that two-thirds of surveyed Latinos believe Trump wasn’t referring to them when discussing immigrants. Additionally, half of foreign-born Latinos shared this sentiment. These findings suggest a growing acceptance of Trump among Hispanic communities.

While Latinos predominantly lean Democrat, Trump’s messaging on the economy resonates with many in this demographic. His approach appears to offer a sense of belonging similar to that extended to white voters. This strategy could be pivotal for his future campaigns as he continues to engage with diverse voter groups.

TRUMP And HARRIS Neck-And-Neck: What’s Behind the Poll Shocker?

15 October 2024 — Recent polls show a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with both candidates nearly tied. Just last month, Harris was ahead in election and favorability ratings. Now, her lead is gone, sparking questions about why voters are changing their minds.

NBC’s Savannah Guthrie talked with analyst Steve Kornacki about this shift. He explained how Harris’s favorability ratings have reversed. Last month, she had a 48% positive rating compared to Trump’s steady numbers. Now her positive rating has fallen to 43%, while her negative rating jumped to 49%.

Kornacki noted that this change brings Harris’s ratings closer to Trump’s figures. He also mentioned an interesting twist about public views on Trump’s presidency. Recent polling shows that 44% of voters think Trump’s policies helped their families more than during his time in office.

TRUMP RALLY Draws Huge Crowd In Arizona: Supporters Ecstatic

24 August 2024 — Videos and pictures on social media show the arena, which holds 18,000 people, nearly full ahead of former President Donald Trump’s speech at the Turning Point Action rally. Supporters lined up for miles hoping to gain entry.

The venue previously hosted an event by Harris earlier this month, drawing a crowd of 15,000. The Trump rally comes shortly after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced the suspension of his presidential campaign and urged blue state residents to vote for him while supporting Trump in battleground states.

Trump hinted at a “special guest” for the rally on Truth Social, leading many to speculate that it could be Kennedy. “Heading to Arizona where I will soon be speaking at Turning Point — BIG CROWD, AND EVEN BIGGER SURPRISE!” he posted.

LABOUR PARTY Surges Amid UK Election Betting Scandal

29 June 2024 — The U.K. general election on July 4 is approaching, with the Labour Party expected to defeat Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives. Polls indicate Labour leader Keir Starmer will likely form the next government.

The Conservative campaign has struggled, facing allegations of election betting involving figures close to Sunak. This scandal has further dampened their already lackluster efforts.

In the U.K., the prime minister decides election dates, unlike fixed schedules in countries like the U.S. This unique system has led to a market for predicting election dates and outcomes.

Police officers and Conservative insiders are under investigation for their involvement in this betting scandal, adding another layer of controversy as over 50 countries prepare for elections in 2024.

CONSERVATIVE Officials in HOT Water Over Election Betting Scandal

23 June 2024 — Nick Mason is the fourth Conservative official to be investigated by the U.K.’s Gambling Commission for allegedly betting on election timing before the date was announced. Dozens of bets with potential winnings worth thousands of pounds are under scrutiny.

Two other Conservative candidates, Laura Saunders and Craig Williams, are also being investigated. Tony Lee, Saunders’ husband and Conservative director of campaigning, has taken a leave of absence amid similar allegations.

The scandal comes just two weeks before the national election, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s party. Sunak expressed anger over the allegations and stated that lawbreakers should be expelled from the party.

Saunders has pledged full cooperation with investigators. Williams served as Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary in addition to being a candidate.

POPULIST PVV Surge: Historic Gains in European Parliament

07 June 2024 — The Party for Freedom (PVV) is set to secure at least seven seats in the European Parliament, according to exit polls. This marks a significant gain from zero seats in 2019. Ipsos estimates show this as the largest gain for any Dutch party and a historic high for PVV.

Despite this success, the Green Left and Labour Party alliance is predicted to win eight seats, one fewer than their combined total in 2019. Geert Wilders expressed optimism about potentially gaining an additional seat when official results are released. He stated, “We have never had seven seats before… We are by far the biggest winner.”

Wilders believes this result signals a broader trend across Europe against mass migration policies. He said that Eurosceptical voices will grow stronger within the European Parliament, sending a clear message to Brussels elites.

Tom Van Grieken of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang echoed Wilders’ sentiment, calling it a “very hopeful signal” for similar parties across Europe. He noted that what happened in the Netherlands could also happen in Flanders on Sunday.

NIGEL FARAGE’S Bold Return: Reform UK Aims to Shake UP British Politics

04 June 2024 — Nigel Farage is back at the helm of the Reform UK Party, formerly known as the Brexit Party. He will stand for election in Clacton, a seat where his former party UKIP previously found success. Farage’s ambitions extend beyond this election, aiming for significant influence in future elections.

A recent poll indicates a potential Conservative Party defeat under Rishi Sunak’s leadership. Farage believes Reform UK could surpass the Conservatives in votes next month. He stated, "We’re going to get a huge number of votes... they are on the verge of total collapse.

Reform UK has outpolled Conservatives before, notably in the 2019 EU Parliament elections with 5.2 million votes against 1.5 million for Conservatives. However, replicating this success in Westminster elections would be challenging due to Britain’s electoral system favoring established parties like Labour and Conservatives or regional parties like SNP and Greens.

Farage aims to use this campaign as a springboard for future success, positioning Reform UK as the main opposition party against an internally conflicted Conservative Party. “We are going to be the voice of opposition,” he declared confidently, promising to surprise everyone once again with his political prowess.

SUNAK SHOCKS Nation: Calls Surprise Election for July 4

23 May 2024 — British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has shocked many by calling a general election for July 4. Known for being thorough and evidence-led, this move contrasts sharply with his usual cautious approach.

Opinion polls suggest that Sunak’s Conservative Party is trailing behind the opposition Labour Party, which could spell trouble for his leadership. Sunak took office in October 2022, replacing Liz Truss after her economic policies caused market turmoil.

Sunak had warned against Truss’s unfunded tax cuts, predicting economic havoc that indeed followed. His rise to power was rapid, becoming Britain’s first leader of color and youngest prime minister in over two centuries at age 42.

Sunak previously served as Treasury chief during the coronavirus pandemic, where he introduced an unprecedented economic support package. Now at age 44, he faces a critical test with this upcoming election amid challenging political landscapes.

UK-US SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP Faces Turbulence With Trump And Labour

18 May 2024 — Polls indicate Donald Trump may return to the White House, while the Labour Party is projected to take power in the UK. This potential shift could strain the “special relationship” between the two nations.

Labour leaders are softening their stance on Trump, recognizing the need for cooperation with Washington. However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan is pushing for open criticism of Trump, labeling him a “racist,” “sexist,” and "homophobe.

Khan insists that maintaining a special relationship means calling out such views. Despite his city’s crime issues and recent re-election, Khan remains vocal against another Trump presidency. He argues against welcoming Trump with state honors and claims many Republicans share his concerns about Trump’s return.

SOUTH KOREAN Election Shocker: Voters Lean Left in Historic Turn

11 April 2024 — South Korean voters, upset by the economic slump, are showing their disapproval towards President Yoon Suk-yeol and his ruling People Power Party (PPP). Early exit polls indicate a dramatic tilt in the National Assembly, with the opposition DP/DUP coalition on track to win between 168 and 193 of the 300 seats. This would leave Yoon’s PPP and its partners trailing with just 87-111 seats.

A record-breaking turnout of 67 percent — the highest for a midterm election since 1992 — reflects widespread voter engagement. South Korea’s unique proportional representation system aims to give smaller parties a chance but has resulted in a crowded field that confuses many voters.

PPP leader Han Dong-hoon has publicly recognized the disappointing exit poll figures. He pledged to honor the electorate’s decision and wait for the final tally. The election results could mark a pivotal change in South Korea’s political landscape, hinting at broader shifts ahead.

This electoral outcome underscores growing public discontent with current economic policies and signals a desire for change among South Korean voters, potentially reshaping the nation’s policy direction in years to come.

TRUMP SURGES Ahead in Michigan: Biden’s Struggle to Secure Base Exposed

25 March 2024 — A recent trial ballot in Michigan has revealed a surprising lead for Trump over Biden, with 47 percent favoring the former president compared to 44 percent for the incumbent. This result falls within the survey’s ±3 percent margin of error, leaving nine percent of voters still undecided.

In a more complex five-way trial ballot test, Trump maintains his lead at 44 percent against Biden’s 42 percent. The remaining votes are split among independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, and independent Cornel West.

Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research, attributes Trump’s lead to Biden’s lackluster support from African Americans and younger voters. He forecasts a nail-biting contest ahead as the victory will likely hinge on which candidate can rally their base more effectively.

In a head-to-head choice between Trump and Biden, an overwhelming 90 percent of Republican Michiganders back Trump while only 84 percent of Democrats support Biden. This poll report underscores an uncomfortable situation for Biden as he loses a significant 12 percent chunk of his vote to former President Trump.

ANC on SHAKY Ground: South Africa’s Opposition Parties Gaining Momentum

14 March 2024 — Recent polling data indicates a potential shift in South Africa’s political scene, the likes of which haven’t been seen since 1994. The ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), has experienced a decline in support from 44% to 39% since November 2022.

On the other hand, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) has seen its share rise from 23% to a notable 27%. A newcomer on the scene, the MK Party, has made an impressive debut with a surprising 13%, while support for the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party has dwindled to just 10%.

This changing landscape could potentially pave the way for DA to form a majority coalition with other parties excluding ANC and EFF. This tactic proved successful in Cape Town’s municipal elections back in 2006. Despite ANC’s historical appeal due to its instrumental role in ending apartheid, ongoing issues such as electricity and water shortages, high crime rates, and rampant corruption have strained voters’ loyalty.

The shifting political climate suggests that voters are seeking change and are willing to look beyond traditional party lines. This could lead to significant changes in South Africa’s political landscape moving forward.

TRUMP’S COMEBACK: Leads Biden in Hypothetical 2024 Race, Reveals Michigan Poll

15 February 2024 — A recent poll from Michigan, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, reveals a surprising turn of events. In a hypothetical race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Trump takes a two-point lead. The poll shows 47% of registered voters backing Trump while Biden comes close with 45%. This narrow lead falls within the poll’s margin of error.

This represents an impressive swing towards Trump by 11 points compared to a July 2020 Fox News Beacon Research and Shaw Company poll. During that time, Biden held the upper hand with 49% support versus Trump’s 40%. In this latest survey, only one percent would back another candidate while three percent would abstain from voting. An intriguing four percent remain undecided.

The plot thickens when the field is expanded to include independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent Cornel West. Here, Trump’s lead over Biden grows to five points suggesting his appeal remains strong among voters even in a wider field of candidates.

US STEEL Takeover: BLOCKING Japanese Buyout Could Save American Jobs

22 December 2023 — Nippon Steel, Japan’s leading steel company, is facing a storm of criticism over its planned $14 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel Corporation. The deal, unveiled on Monday, values U.S. Steel at $55 per share and has sparked immediate opposition, especially in the Rust Belt where U.S. Steel has been a cornerstone since 1901.

Despite U.S. Steel’s assurances that the merger would unite “two storied companies with rich histories,” lawmakers are demanding action. Senators J.D. Vance (R-OH), Josh Hawley (R-MO), and Marco Rubio (R-FL) have written to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urging the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to halt the deal.

The senators contend that domestic steel production is vital for national security and needs careful scrutiny before permitting foreign investment. CFIUS, led by Yellen, holds the authority to stop such investments after a review process.

While experts predict CFIUS is more likely to block deals involving countries perceived as adversaries like Russia or China rather than allies like Japan, this situation highlights bipartisan worries about foreign control over crucial industries.

UK INFLATION TUMBLES to 39%: Central Bank May Slash Rates Sooner Than Predicted

21 December 2023 — The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently announced a surprising drop in UK inflation to 3.9% in November, a decrease from the previous month’s 4.6%. This dip, larger than what financial markets had forecasted, marks the lowest inflation level since September 2021.

This decline is primarily attributed to falling fuel and food prices according to the ONS. However, despite this optimistic news, the Bank of England’s primary interest rate remains at a staggering high of 5.25%, not seen for over a decade and a half.

Governor Andrew Bailey hinted that this stringent interest rate policy might continue for some time. Yet Samuel Tombs, chief U.K economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests an alternative view — that this sharp fall in inflation could trigger an earlier-than-expected cut in interest rates; perhaps as early as the first half of next year.

While elevated interest rates initially helped curb inflation sparked by supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they have also put pressure on consumer spending and slowed economic growth. As such there are growing worries that maintaining high rates could inflict unnecessary damage on the economy.

Bipartisan Committee CALLS for END of China’s Trade Status: A Potential Jolt to US Economy

12 December 2023 — A bipartisan committee, led by Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), has been studying the economic effects of China on the US for a year. The investigation centered on job market changes, manufacturing shifts, and national security concerns since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001.

The committee released a report this Tuesday recommending President Joe Biden’s administration and Congress to implement nearly 150 policies to counteract China’s economic influence. One significant suggestion is to cancel China’s permanent normal trade relations status (PNTR) with the U.S., a status endorsed by former President George W. Bush in 2001.

The report argues that granting PNTR to China did not bring anticipated benefits for the US or trigger expected reforms in China. It asserts that this has led to a loss of vital U.S. economic leverage and inflicted damage on U.S industry, workers, and manufacturers due to unfair trade practices.

The committee proposes shifting China into a new tariff category that reinstates U.S economic leverage while reducing dependence on Chinese

FRONTIER AI: A Ticking Time Bomb? World Leaders and Tech Titans Convene to Discuss Risks

01 November 2023 — The latest buzzword in the realm of artificial intelligence, Frontier AI, has been causing a stir due to its potential threats to human existence. Advanced chatbots like ChatGPT have dazzled with their capabilities, but fears about the risks associated with such technology are escalating. Top researchers, leading AI companies, and governments are advocating for protective measures against these looming dangers.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is orchestrating a two-day summit on frontier AI at Bletchley Park. The event is set to draw around 100 officials from 28 nations including U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Executives from prominent U.S. artificial intelligence firms such as OpenAI, Google’s Deepmind and Anthropic will also be in attendance.

Sunak asserts that only governments can shield people from the hazards posed by this technology. However, he stressed that the U.K.'s strategy is not to hastily impose regulation despite identifying potential threats like using AI for crafting chemical or biological weapons.

Jeff Clune, an associate computer science professor at the University of British Columbia who specializes in AI and machine learning was among those urging for more government intervention in mitigating risks from AI last week — echoing warnings issued by tech tycoons like Elon Musk and Open

Rishi Sunak’s TURBULENT First Year: Is History About to REPEAT Itself for the Conservatives?

26 October 2023 — Rishi Sunak, UK Prime Minister, has marked his first year in office amidst a storm of international conflicts and domestic challenges. His Conservative Party is haunted by the ghost of 1996, when they were dethroned by the Labour Party after ruling for more than a decade.

Recent opinion polls reveal that the Conservatives are lagging 15 to 20 points behind Labour. This gap has remained steady throughout Sunak’s term. An Ipsos poll showed that a whopping 65% of respondents felt the Conservatives did not deserve another term, while merely 19% believed they did.

The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and Russia’s war in Ukraine have added layers of complexity to Sunak’s situation. Despite acknowledging his challenging year and vowing to continue serving hardworking families nationwide, there are widespread fears these hurdles may trigger another Conservative downfall.

LABOUR PARTY Triumphs: Shocking Upset in Special Elections Reshapes UK Political Landscape

21 October 2023 — In a surprising turn of events, Britain’s Labour Party has managed to secure two Parliament seats previously dominated by the Conservatives. This unexpected victory took place in the special elections held in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire, with a significant number of voters switching their loyalty to Labour.

This win strengthens Labour’s standing as the primary challenger for next year’s national election. It also piles pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to rejuvenate his party’s reputation. Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, proclaimed that his party is “redrawing the political map”.

The victories were marked by Sarah Edwards’ success in Tamworth and Alistair Strathern’s triumph in Mid-Bedfordshire, both overcoming substantial Conservative majorities from 2019. However, it should be noted that voter turnout was relatively low at 36% and 44% respectively. Additionally, these elections took place under unique circumstances due to resignations from former lawmakers.

UK Inflation DEFIES Predictions, STAYS at 67%: What’s Next for the Economy?

18 October 2023 — The UK’s inflation rate held steady at 6.7% in September, flying in the face of economists’ predictions for a slight decrease. The Office for National Statistics highlighted that while food and drink prices dipped, they were counterbalanced by an uptick in fuel costs.

This persistent inflation rate is more than triple the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Despite this, it is not expected that the bank will hike interest rates during its November policy meeting. Instead, it seems set to keep its main borrowing rate at a peak not seen in 15 years — a hefty 5.25%.

James Smith from the Resolution Foundation think tank offered his perspective on this economic puzzle: “For now, progress on reducing inflation has hit a roadblock.” He anticipates a significant drop to below 5% next month as energy prices are projected to fall for most consumers.

In response to price surges triggered by pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — both factors contributing heavily to increased food and energy costs — the Bank of England has been steadily cranking up interest rates from near zero levels.