THREAD: will your money grow ecb eyes

BIDEN-HARRIS Strategy Fails: Hamas Rejects Hostage Deal

27 October 2024 — In a critical moment during negotiations, Hamas leader Sinwar rejected a hostage deal, banking on the BIDEN-HARRIS administration’s pressure on Israel to benefit Hamas. The Wall Street Journal reports Sinwar urged leaders outside Gaza to resist concessions, believing high civilian casualties would increase global pressure on Israel. This strategy aimed to exploit perceived weaknesses in the administration’s approach.

The report reveals a big miscalculation by the Biden-Harris team. Their dual strategy of pushing Israel for negotiations while criticizing it over Gaza backfired, as Sinwar saw this as an opportunity to reject compromise. By intensifying pressure on Israel, the administration inadvertently strengthened Hamas’s position and derailed potential agreements.

Critics swiftly reacted to these revelations. Journalist Daniel Greenfield stated that “the Biden-Harris administration emboldened Hamas.” Author Benjamin Weingarten highlighted extensive support provided to Iran and its affiliates under Obama-Biden policies, while political analyst Michael Scott Doran criticized their negotiation tactics as fundamentally flawed.

NEW FIGHTER JET Program Aims to Counter China and Russia Threats

20 October 2024 — Japan, the U.K., and Italy are teaming up to create a new combat aircraft by 2035 under the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP). This project aims to strengthen defense against threats from China, Russia, and North Korea. The advanced stealth fighter will replace Japan’s F-2s and Eurofighter Typhoons.

Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani announced the creation of the GCAP International Government Organization (GIGO) by year’s end. GIGO will manage aircraft development from its base in the U.K., led by a Japanese official. This announcement came after a meeting with his U.K. and Italian counterparts at the Group of Seven defense ministers meeting in Naples, Italy.

Private companies like Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Britain’s BAE Systems PLC, and Italy’s Leonardo are part of this effort. Nakatani confirmed that GIGO is on track to sign its first contract next year despite leadership changes in Japan and the U.K. This partnership highlights a commitment to boosting military capabilities amid global security concerns.

MYSTERY Artist BANKSY Continues to Captivate the World

18 August 2024 — Banksy, the famous yet anonymous artist, continues to captivate global audiences. His works sell for millions and are owned by celebrities like Brad Pitt and Christina Aguilera. Despite his fame, Banksy’s identity remains a closely guarded secret.

Banksy’s art often carries political messages and addresses global issues through immersive installations. Some of his pieces also explore lighter, playful themes. This duality has broadened his appeal across various demographics.

Speculation about Banksy’s true identity persists among fans and critics alike. He is believed to be from Bristol, England, where he initially gained recognition as a graffiti artist with his distinctive stenciled designs.

LABOUR PARTY’S Economic Plan Under Fire: Will It Really Work?

22 July 2024 — Britain’s new Treasury chief, Rachel Reeves, vows to run the economy with “iron discipline.” She hinted at above-inflation pay raises for public sector workers to end ongoing strikes.

The Labour Party, elected two weeks ago, faces pressure to increase salaries and welfare without raising taxes or public borrowing. Reeves criticized the previous Conservative government for high taxes and debt.

Labour won a landslide victory on promises of economic growth, housebuilding, green energy projects, and improved public services. The electorate seeks relief from high living costs and past economic mismanagement.

Inflation has dropped to 2%, but strikes by hospital doctors strain the National Health Service. Other public-sector workers like nurses and teachers have also demanded higher pay through walkouts over the past year.

Starmer’s ANTI-BREXIT Agenda: EU Relations Set to Deepen Paragraph 1

08 July 2024 — Keir Starmer’s government claims it will not reverse Brexit, but closer ties with the EU are clearly on their agenda. Starmer sent Foreign Secretary David Lammy to Berlin, Stockholm, and Warsaw for diplomatic talks. PARAGRAPH 2

Lammy, who controversially compared Brexiteers to Nazis, wrote in The Local about resetting relations with Europe. He emphasized working closely together to tackle shared challenges and supporting Ukraine against Putin. PARAGRAPH 3

The Labour Party shows no signs of scaling back military interventionism. Lammy affirmed Britain’s commitment to standing by Ukraine in its fight for freedom. PARAGRAPH 4

Lammy’s visit underscores the Labour Party’s intention to strengthen ties with European allies. His tweet highlighted cooperation on shared threats and a bit of football enthusiasm.

CONSERVATIVE Officials in HOT Water Over Election Betting Scandal

23 June 2024 — Nick Mason is the fourth Conservative official to be investigated by the U.K.’s Gambling Commission for allegedly betting on election timing before the date was announced. Dozens of bets with potential winnings worth thousands of pounds are under scrutiny.

Two other Conservative candidates, Laura Saunders and Craig Williams, are also being investigated. Tony Lee, Saunders’ husband and Conservative director of campaigning, has taken a leave of absence amid similar allegations.

The scandal comes just two weeks before the national election, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s party. Sunak expressed anger over the allegations and stated that lawbreakers should be expelled from the party.

Saunders has pledged full cooperation with investigators. Williams served as Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary in addition to being a candidate.

POPULIST PVV Surge: Historic Gains in European Parliament

07 June 2024 — The Party for Freedom (PVV) is set to secure at least seven seats in the European Parliament, according to exit polls. This marks a significant gain from zero seats in 2019. Ipsos estimates show this as the largest gain for any Dutch party and a historic high for PVV.

Despite this success, the Green Left and Labour Party alliance is predicted to win eight seats, one fewer than their combined total in 2019. Geert Wilders expressed optimism about potentially gaining an additional seat when official results are released. He stated, “We have never had seven seats before… We are by far the biggest winner.”

Wilders believes this result signals a broader trend across Europe against mass migration policies. He said that Eurosceptical voices will grow stronger within the European Parliament, sending a clear message to Brussels elites.

Tom Van Grieken of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang echoed Wilders’ sentiment, calling it a “very hopeful signal” for similar parties across Europe. He noted that what happened in the Netherlands could also happen in Flanders on Sunday.

LABOUR PARTY’S NEW Promises: Empty Words or Real Change?

16 May 2024 — Labour Party leader Keir Starmer announced key pledges to win over voters in the upcoming U.K. election. His promises focus on economic stability, security, health, and education. Labour aims to regain power after 14 years in opposition.

Starmer’s six promises include restoring economic stability amid high inflation and mortgage rates, establishing a publicly owned green-energy company, and toughening border controls. Labour also plans to cut NHS waiting times, recruit more police officers, and hire thousands of new teachers.

Funding for these initiatives will come from measures like a windfall tax on oil and gas companies and ending tax breaks for private schools. At an event in Essex, Starmer called these pledges “our down-payment on change” that would take a decade to implement.

Since taking over from Jeremy Corbyn in 2020, Starmer has moved Labour toward the political center ground by supporting military aid to Ukraine and committing to balancing the books while addressing antisemitism within the party under Corbyn’s leadership.

MASS MIGRATION Cripples UK Housing: Urgent Call for Policy Overhaul

13 May 2024 — The Bank of England’s chief economist, Huw Pill, has identified a severe shortage in housing supply and skyrocketing demand as the primary reasons for rising rent prices. In 2022, a record-breaking net migration of 745,000 significantly fueled this demand. Pill criticizes the restrictive planning policies that have hindered adequate housing development.

Contrasting with the government’s positive spin on economic figures, Pill’s insights reveal underlying challenges. Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt highlighted a 0.6 percent GDP growth as evidence of post-pandemic recovery. Yet, this growth occurs against a backdrop of high taxes and limited spending cuts under what Hunt describes as a neo-liberal globalist agenda.

The escalating housing crisis necessitates immediate action as the existing supply fails to accommodate the influx from mass migration. This dire situation demands a thorough reassessment of immigration and housing regulations to effectively tackle these pressing issues.

BRITISH TRADER’S Appeal Crushed: Libor Conviction Stands Strong

28 March 2024 — Tom Hayes, a former financial trader for Citigroup and UBS, has been unsuccessful in his attempt to overturn his conviction. This 44-year-old Brit was convicted in 2015 for manipulating the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) from 2006 to 2010. His case marked the first-ever conviction of this kind.

Hayes served half of an 11-year sentence and was released in 2021. Despite asserting his innocence throughout, he faced another conviction by a U.S court in 2016.

Carlo Palombo, another trader implicated in similar manipulations with Euribor, also sought appeal through the U.K.'s Court of Appeal via the Criminal Cases Review Commission. However, after a three-day hearing earlier this month, both appeals were dismissed without success.

The Serious Fraud Office remained resolute against these appeals stating: “No one is above the law and the court has recognized that these convictions stand firm.” This decision comes on the heels of a contrasting verdict from a U.S court last year which reversed similar convictions of two former Deutsche Bank traders.

GREEN AGENDA Hits Hard: Ofgem Warns of Financial Burden on Low-Income Consumers

13 March 2024 — The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) sounded an alarm on Monday. It cautioned that the shift towards a “Net Zero” carbon emissions economy could unfairly impact low-income consumers. These individuals might lack the financial resources to acquire government-approved technology or modify their lifestyle habits.

In the past year alone, debts from energy consumers have skyrocketed by 50%, amassing a total of £3 billion. Ofgem voiced grave concerns about struggling households’ limited resilience to future price shocks. The regulator also highlighted that the burden of recovering bad debts could pose serious threats to the retail energy sector.

Economic difficulties have already pushed British consumers into rationing their energy consumption. This has led to “harms associated with living in a cold, damp home,” potentially triggering an increase in mental health issues rates.

Tim Jarvis, Ofgem’s director general, underscored the necessity for a long-term strategy to manage escalating debt levels and shield struggling consumers from future price shocks. He mentioned that measures such as altering standing charges for prepayment meter customers and tightening requirements on suppliers had been implemented.

BODY SHOP Faces Uncertain Future: Insolvency Administrators Step In Amid Financial Crisis

14 February 2024 — The Body Shop, a renowned British beauty and cosmetics retailer, has enlisted the help of insolvency administrators. This move follows years of financial struggles that have plagued the company. Established in 1976 as a single store, The Body Shop has grown into one of Britain’s most iconic high street retailers. Now, its future hangs in the balance.

FRP, the appointed administrators for The Body Shop, have revealed that past owners’ financial mismanagement has contributed to an extended period of hardship for the company. These issues are exacerbated by a challenging trading environment within the broader retail sector.

Just weeks before this announcement, European private equity firm Aurelius took over The Body Shop. Known for their expertise in revitalizing struggling companies, Aurelius now faces a significant challenge with this latest acquisition.

Anita Roddick and her husband established The Body Shop in 1976 with ethical consumerism at its core. Roddick earned herself the title “Queen of Green” by prioritizing corporate social responsibility and environmentalism long before they became fashionable business practices. Today however, her legacy is threatened by ongoing financial difficulties.

UK-CANADA Trade Talks GRIND to a Halt: The Beef and Cheese Battle That’s Costing Billions

26 January 2024 — The UK government has unexpectedly put the brakes on post-Brexit trade talks with Canada. This sudden move follows a two-year stalemate over beef and cheese imports and exports, which began after Britain officially left the European Union.

Trade between these nations, valued at roughly 26 billion pounds ($33 billion) per year, has mostly persisted under the initial agreement made while Britain was still an EU member. However, Canadian negotiators are feeling the heat from their own beef industry and local cheesemakers. The former is pushing for access to the UK market for hormone-fed beef, while cheesemakers are raising alarms about tariff-free imports of British cheese.

The privilege of tariff-free British cheese exports came to a halt at the close of 2023 when a temporary agreement expired. This change led to a staggering 245% duty hike for British producers. Canada’s trade minister Mary Ng firmly stated that Canada “will never agree to a deal that isn’t beneficial for our workers, farmers and businesses.” Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers’ Union in England and Wales praised Britain’s resistance against hormone-fed beef imports.

Despite this hiccup in negotiations, the UK government remains open-minded about future discussions. However, any significant progress appears unlikely at present.

From BETTING FRENZY to Prison: Andy May’s £13M Gamble and His Fight Against Addiction

06 January 2024 — Andy May, once a finance manager from Norfolk, squandered his family’s house deposit in a gambling frenzy. After seven years of abstinence from betting, the allure of a “free bet” during the 2014 World Cup lured him back into the destructive habit.

May’s addiction spiraled out of control as he misused his company credit card to gamble away £1.3 million. This reckless act led him straight to prison. Now released after two years, he has teamed up with GambleAware to share his cautionary tale and raise awareness about gambling addiction.

During his four-and-a-half-year betting spree, May wagered on everything conceivable. He even resorted to paying off personal credit card debts using company funds. His illicit activities eventually caught up with him in 2019 when he was found guilty of stealing over £1.3 million from his employer.

Despite losing his job and deceiving his family about it, May confesses that he might be tempted by gambling again but fights daily against this urge. He underscores that no amount of potential winnings could enhance his life while everything is

PASSPORT PANIC: Zimbabweans Race Against Time Amid Looming Price Hike Fear

25 December 2023 — In Zimbabwe, currently grappling with economic woes, the most sought-after Christmas gift isn’t a gadget or toy, but a passport. The capital city’s passport office in Harare is teeming with citizens hoping to secure their travel documents before an expected price surge in the New Year. The looming increase and deteriorating economic conditions are driving a spike in migration.

Nolan Mukona, a 49-year-old father of three, was among those who rose at dawn to join the queue at the passport office. Despite his early start, he was greeted by over 100 people already waiting when he arrived at 5 a.m. “The only thing that can make my Christmas cheerful is if I manage to get a passport,” Mukona shared.

At present, passports cost $120 — an amount already burdensome for many Zimbabweans struggling to meet basic needs. However, according to 2024 budget proposals from the finance minister, these fees will rise to $150 in January — reduced from an initially proposed $200 after public backlash.

Over recent decades, millions of Zimbabweans have fled their homeland due to its crumbling economy. This exodus has accelerated recently as optimism for improvement following Robert Mugabe’s ousting from power in 2017 continues to wane.

UK INFLATION TUMBLES to 39%: Central Bank May Slash Rates Sooner Than Predicted

21 December 2023 — The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently announced a surprising drop in UK inflation to 3.9% in November, a decrease from the previous month’s 4.6%. This dip, larger than what financial markets had forecasted, marks the lowest inflation level since September 2021.

This decline is primarily attributed to falling fuel and food prices according to the ONS. However, despite this optimistic news, the Bank of England’s primary interest rate remains at a staggering high of 5.25%, not seen for over a decade and a half.

Governor Andrew Bailey hinted that this stringent interest rate policy might continue for some time. Yet Samuel Tombs, chief U.K economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests an alternative view — that this sharp fall in inflation could trigger an earlier-than-expected cut in interest rates; perhaps as early as the first half of next year.

While elevated interest rates initially helped curb inflation sparked by supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they have also put pressure on consumer spending and slowed economic growth. As such there are growing worries that maintaining high rates could inflict unnecessary damage on the economy.

ELF BAR Exposed: The Shocking Truth Behind the World’s Top E-Cigarette and Its Billion-Dollar TAX Scam

19 December 2023 — In just two years, Elf Bar, a flashy vaping gadget, has skyrocketed to global prominence as the leading disposable e-cigarette. Not only has it raked in billions in sales, but it has also become a favorite among underage American teens who vape. Last week saw the first public confiscation of Elf Bar products by U.S. authorities during an operation that seized 1.4 million illegal flavored e-cigarettes from China.

The confiscated goods were worth $18 million and included brands beyond Elf Bar. However, public records and court documents disclose that Chinese e-cigarette manufacturers have smuggled in products valued at hundreds of millions while adeptly circumventing customs duties and import fees. These firms frequently mislabel their shipments as “battery chargers’ or ”flashlights', thereby hampering efforts to control teen vaping in America.

Eric Lindblom, a former FDA official, lambasted regulatory approaches towards disposables as “very weak”, allowing this issue to spiral out of control. Meanwhile, fruit-and-candy-flavored disposables have flooded into America following China’s ban on vaping flavors last year under the pretense of safeguard

Bipartisan Committee CALLS for END of China’s Trade Status: A Potential Jolt to US Economy

12 December 2023 — A bipartisan committee, led by Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), has been studying the economic effects of China on the US for a year. The investigation centered on job market changes, manufacturing shifts, and national security concerns since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001.

The committee released a report this Tuesday recommending President Joe Biden’s administration and Congress to implement nearly 150 policies to counteract China’s economic influence. One significant suggestion is to cancel China’s permanent normal trade relations status (PNTR) with the U.S., a status endorsed by former President George W. Bush in 2001.

The report argues that granting PNTR to China did not bring anticipated benefits for the US or trigger expected reforms in China. It asserts that this has led to a loss of vital U.S. economic leverage and inflicted damage on U.S industry, workers, and manufacturers due to unfair trade practices.

The committee proposes shifting China into a new tariff category that reinstates U.S economic leverage while reducing dependence on Chinese

ITALY’S Bold Exit from China’s Belt and Road Initiative: A Triumph for Western Independence

06 December 2023 — Italy recently declared its departure from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), signifying a major shift in Western attitudes towards Beijing’s economic clout. After four years of involvement, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani noted that nations not participating in the initiative have seen superior results.

The official withdrawal notice was issued by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s administration this week, well before the initial agreement expires next year. This decision sets the stage for an upcoming summit hosted by China with European Union leaders who have lately adopted a more wary stance towards Beijing.

In response to mounting skepticism, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi advocated for mutually beneficial relationships between Europe and China to boost global development. However, such views are increasingly met with suspicion in Europe as Western societies strive to steer clear of economic connections that might give Beijing an upper hand during political upheavals.

Stefano Stefanini, former Italian Ambassador, underscored an official G7 policy termed “de-risking”, spotlighting U.S.'s opposition against Italy’s participation in BRI. Despite U.S warnings labeling it as a “predatory” lending scheme aimed at controlling strategic infrastructure, Italy joined the initiative back in 2019.

UK Inflation DEFIES Predictions, STAYS at 67%: What’s Next for the Economy?

18 October 2023 — The UK’s inflation rate held steady at 6.7% in September, flying in the face of economists’ predictions for a slight decrease. The Office for National Statistics highlighted that while food and drink prices dipped, they were counterbalanced by an uptick in fuel costs.

This persistent inflation rate is more than triple the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Despite this, it is not expected that the bank will hike interest rates during its November policy meeting. Instead, it seems set to keep its main borrowing rate at a peak not seen in 15 years — a hefty 5.25%.

James Smith from the Resolution Foundation think tank offered his perspective on this economic puzzle: “For now, progress on reducing inflation has hit a roadblock.” He anticipates a significant drop to below 5% next month as energy prices are projected to fall for most consumers.

In response to price surges triggered by pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — both factors contributing heavily to increased food and energy costs — the Bank of England has been steadily cranking up interest rates from near zero levels.