| By Richard Ahern — Confused by all the different polls? We’ve sifted through the garbage to uncover the raw data about who will win the 2024 election if it was held today.
A new poll comes out every day, often contradicting the one before it, and the media has a habit of cherry-picking the ones that fit their agenda.
We’ve discarded the biased surveys sponsored by political organizations, trashed the polls that use an unrepresentative sample of the public, and only used information from pollsters rated “B” and up.
Here’s what we’ve found:
On the Democrat side, it appears that Joe Biden will run for a second term despite being over 80 years old and showing signs of mental decline. Other potential Democratic candidates have not been given much consideration in most surveys, leaving vice president Kamala Harris as the only viable alternative.
Other Democrat candidates like Hilary Clinton and Bernie Sanders poll extremely poorly when pitted against Biden or Harris. For example, of 891 adults questioned, Harris scored 11 points higher than Clinton, but a different poll had Biden demolish Harris 41%–12%.
Providing they can keep President Biden awake and upright, he is the best chance the Democrats have at keeping the presidency.
On the Republican side, it’s more exciting with several candidates throwing their hats into the ring. However, realistically it is a two-man race between the former president, Donald Trump, and current Florida governor Ron DeSantis.
Ron DeSantis just confirmed his intention to run by kicking off his campaign with an interview with Elon Musk posted on Twitter Spaces. Unfortunately, the event was plagued by technical issues, with the audio and connection dropping out several times. Since the event, DeSantis is now more unfavorable (41.1%) than favorable (41%).
Last year DeSantis was polling favorably — some polls indicated he was more popular than Donald Trump.
That sentiment has rapidly reversed:
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Republican primary polls
Trump vs DeSantis 2024 poll
Most recent polls indicate that Trump is the Republican frontrunner, with DeSantis losing steam before the campaigning even began. National polls now show a massive gap between Trump and DeSantis, with Trump scoring over 50% and DeSantis sinking to almost 20%.
To the chagrin of Democrats, the recent legal attacks against Donald Trump have only strengthened his public support. In voters’ minds, the court cases likely reaffirm their beliefs that Trump is the victim of a witch hunt.
Trump’s approval rating further skyrocketed after he dominated a CNN town hall, where he appeared in top form — a sharp contrast to the current president. The hour-long televised event demonstrated the former president is still popular with Republican voters, with the crowd cheering and laughing throughout.
On the other hand, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s popularity with Republicans has steadily declined, with reports about his apparent low energy and lack of personality dominating the headlines. Voters feel the same — Trump scored 9% higher when adults were asked who is more “charismatic,” according to YouGov.
Yet, DeSantis has gained the support of the second richest man in the world, Elon Musk. Although Musk has not officially endorsed him, he has strongly hinted as such.
Reports also indicate that DeSantis has accumulated a sizable campaign fund of almost $100 million, and with Twitter CEO Elon Musk on his side, that fund could rapidly grow.
Ultimately, the voters hold the power, and when compared directly to Trump, DeSantis appears to be the loser.
The most recent poll from the Economist showed Trump dominating DeSantis by 32 percentage points for the Republican primary. Likewise, a recent poll from the Morning Consult showed Trump leading DeSantis by 38%.
At the end of last year, the results were considerably tighter, with some polls showing DeSantis in the lead. For example, a poll by Suffolk University showed DeSantis leading Trump by 23%, and The Economist and YouGov had him leading the former president by 8%.
But that’s not the whole story:
2024 presidential election polls
Those polls only show who would win the Republican primary — what about the actual presidential election? Assuming that Joe Biden is running, DeSantis appears to be the winner — but by a tiny margin.
Despite the left-wing bias of university polls, Quinnipiac University had DeSantis narrowly leading Biden by 1% in the general election. In contrast, the same survey had Biden leading Trump by 2% if the election was held today, according to registered voters.
Overall, the general election polls clearly show that America is divided 50-50 — the numbers are incredibly close. YouGov has Biden vs. DeSantis at exactly even but puts Trump at 2% ahead of the current president.
Joe Biden will be 82 years old in 2024, yet according to voters, he is the best chance Democrats have at winning another term. Ironically a poll named the Harris Poll has Trump dominating Kamala Harris in the general election by 11 percentage points.
Should the vice president, Kamala Harris, run for office, according to registered voters, she stands better odds against Ron DeSantis, often polling even with the Florida governor.
The only opponent Harris beats in surveys is the former governor of South Carolina, Republican Nikki Haley — yet Haley has consistently polled below 10% in the Republican primary.
Here’s the bottom line:
The data points to a 2024 rematch between Biden and Trump, but currently, America is split down the middle. The numbers are so close it would be impossible to call a winner at this point. That sentiment will likely remain steady until election day — meaning that every single vote counts!
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