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Why is Russia invading Ukraine

Ukraine-Russia News

Ukraine-Russia War: The WORST-CASE Scenario (and Best-Case)

Ukraine Russia war


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FACT-CHECK GUARANTEE (References): [Straight from the source: 1 source] [Government website: 1 source] [High authority and trusted websites: 1 source]

03 March 2022 | By Richard AhernThe war in Ukraine continues with Russia sending more troops despite peace talks taking place.

The invasion is arguably not going to plan for Putin as the Ukrainians have put up heavy resistance.

However, more troops are on their way with a 40-mile convoy of Russian armored vehicles rapidly approaching the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

Peace talks have been taking place between Ukraine and Russia, but little progress has been made with Putin staying firm on his demands.

What will happen next?

Here’s our analysis of the situation, presented in two likely scenarios, the worst-case scenario, and the best-case.

Worst-case scenario

The worst-case scenario is grim, but unfortunately, there is a real possibility this is just the beginning of a much larger war, potentially a world war.

So here we go…

In the worst-case scenario, the current peace talks will break down in the coming days. Ukraine has described the talks as “difficult” with Putin standing firm on his demands of disarming Ukraine and ensuring they don’t ever join NATO.

Without any hope of a peaceful resolution, Putin will up the ante and send more troops.

Unfortunately, the fact of the matter is Russia vastly outnumbers Ukraine in troops. Putin is known to have a temper and will do anything to win. If he gets frustrated with the resistance, he will likely continue sending troops, no matter the cost of lives, until he breaks Ukraine and takes over.

In this scenario, Putin will play dirty, as he already is, but it will get worse. He will order his army to target civilians and use every brutal weapon at his disposal to achieve his objective.

Ukraine may hold out for another week, but eventually, Putin will gain control of Ukraine, with many military and civilian lives lost.

Here’s what happens next…

Russia will install a puppet government that will answer to Putin, and any civilians who resist will be jailed or killed.

The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, will fight till the end but will eventually be captured. In this scenario, Putin will likely want to make a public example of Zelensky.

Zelensky will be tried in a Russian “kangaroo court” and found guilty of “genocide”, as Putin terms it. We will see him sentenced to life in prison, or worse, executed for the world to see. Putin governs by fear and will want to send a clear message that he is all-powerful, so we can guarantee that this will be broadcasted to the people of Russia, Ukraine, and the whole world.

With Ukraine under Russian control, it’s still unlikely that Putin would step foot on any NATO soil — he wants Soviet Russia back, but he doesn’t want World War 3. Equally, for the same reason, NATO countries will likely watch as Russia takes over Ukraine without sending a single soldier to fight a Russian.

Here’s how it gets worse:

In order to take Ukraine, Putin orders all weapons to be used at his disposal, including cyber weapons. Russian hackers will send malicious malware into Ukrainian cyberspace to disrupt the power grid and military infrastructure.

Experts have already detected a new type of computer-disabling malware that’s been used alongside Russia’s military assault.

The problem with cyber attacks is that computer viruses don’t understand NATO borders. In a catastrophic scenario, we could see a Russian cyberattack launched on Ukraine accidentally spread through cyberspace into a NATO country.

NATO countries that border Ukraine, like Poland and Romania, could be hit by Russian cyberattacks that were aimed at Ukraine. If a Russian computer virus attacks infrastructure like hospitals in these countries, many lives could be lost.

In this worst-case scenario, Russia accidentally unleashes a cyberattack on a NATO country. The NATO secretary general has said in the past that “a serious cyberattack could trigger Article 5, where an attack against one ally is treated as an attack against all.”

This would be a world war, Russia vs. all 30 NATO countries.

This is the most likely scenario that could bring all the NATO countries into war with Russia.

It gets even worse:

Much like many experts believe Biden’s handling of Afghanistan emboldened Putin to attack Ukraine, the Russian takeover of Ukraine will embolden China to invade Taiwan.

With NATO at war with Russia, China will see this as its golden opportunity to achieve its goal of capturing Taiwan. China initiates a full-scale military assault on Taiwan and then western countries come running to help the people of Taiwan.

In this scenario, China and Russia see a common enemy and form an alliance. Belarus is already helping Putin with Ukraine and will naturally join this alliance.

World War 3 will be NATO vs. the alliance of Russia, China, and Belarus.

Whether World War 3 could see the use of nuclear weapons is a possibility, but still highly unlikely. Every country knows that nuclear war is the end for everyone, and luckily, the decision to launch nuclear weapons ultimately lies with a country’s military. Even in a scenario where Putin was crazy, he doesn’t have the sole authority to launch a nuclear weapon without military approval.

This is the most likely worst-case scenario.

Best-case scenario

Ending on a more optimistic note, let’s discuss the best-case scenario.

Unfortunately, now that Putin has launched a full-scale invasion, no scenario is ideal as lives are already lost.

The best-case scenario could see the current peace talks conclude with a non-violent resolution, although this seems doubtful considering Putin’s current behavior.

The more likely best-case scenario is that Ukraine continues its strong resistance with the help of unlimited supplies and advanced weaponry from NATO. NATO countries manage to get these supplies and weapons to the Ukrainian people at record speed, allowing Ukraine to destroy the Russian army.

If NATO countries can establish an efficient way of supplying Ukraine with unlimited weapons, Russia will start running out of resources first.

It’s been estimated that the invasion is costing Russia $20 billion per day.

Along with more economic sanctions, Putin will run out of money and see his country sink into an abyss. Russia won’t be able to fund the invasion indefinitely, and if Ukraine can hold out long enough, Putin will have no choice but to quit.

Putin won’t quit easily and arguably doesn’t care about how many lives are lost, but if he persists with an invasion that Russia can no longer afford, his political support will begin to disintegrate. Despite his power over Russia, his close advisors and generals will start to turn on him.

That being said…

It’s more likely it won’t get to that point because he is smart enough to stop before he completely destroys his beloved Russia.

Ukraine and its president have demonstrated awe-inspiring courage and resilience already. If allies can get the necessary supplies and weapons to the Ukrainian people fast enough, they can withstand this invasion until Putin breaks Russia’s bank account.

That’s the best-case scenario and the one we are all praying for.

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INSIDE Putin’s Head: WHY is Russia Invading Ukraine?

Why is Russia invading Ukraine

Understanding Putin’s psychology uncovers the truth about the Ukraine Russia war that the mainstream media aren’t telling you.

FACT-CHECK GUARANTEE (References): [Straight from the source: 2 sources] [Government website: 1 source] [High authority and trusted website: 1 source]

25 February 2022 | By Richard AhernThe world woke up on Thursday to the news that Russia had launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Our worst fears came true…

On the 24th February 2021, Putin initiated a “special military operation” in Ukraine, sending troops into the country to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine”.

In a nutshell…

Putin said that the Ukrainian government is run by “neo-Nazis” who have committed “genocide” for eight years. Putin’s statement said he does not intend to occupy Ukraine, but simply, “protect people” from the “humiliation and genocide”.

Putin sent a chilling message to any countries who may interfere in this operation:

“Russia’s response will be immediate and lead you to such consequences as you have never faced in your history.”

Despite all the sensational headlines about the conflict, very few mainstream media outlets have explained what Putin’s logic is, despite him telling the world last year.

If we want any hope of averting World War 3, it is vital that we understand his grievances rather than dismiss them as babbling madness, no matter how wrong they may be.

Let’s take a deep dive into Putin’s psychology by going straight to the source, the Kremlin.

Why has Russia invaded Ukraine?

In July 2021, Putin published an essay on the Kremlin’s official website (currently down due to cyber attacks) where he discussed “the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians”. The essay was an in-depth discussion about the history of Russia and Ukraine and how Putin interprets it.

The essay gives a clear insight into Putin’s motives, something that the mainstream media haven’t discussed. The key to understanding this conflict is that Putin isn’t simply a madman looking for blood but that his reasons are calculated.

Understand this:

The reality is that it’s rare for someone to take action motivated by pure evil with the sole intent to cause suffering. “The road to hell is paved with good intentions” — atrocities are often committed by people who believe they are doing the right thing.

Putin believes he is doing the right thing for the people of Russia and that the Ukrainian government is the evil-doer. No matter how warped, he has an interpretation of history that he has spent much, probably too much time contemplating.

Why does Putin want Ukraine?

His 2021 article begins with the premise of his belief that Russia and Ukraine are “a single whole”. He states that Russians and Ukrainians “are all descendants of Ancient Rus” and were tightly bounded by the single language of “Old Russian”.

Putin says that “modern Ukraine is entirely the product of the Soviet era” and that it is a “crystal clear” fact that “Russia was robbed” of land following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Nevertheless, from 1991 to 2013, Putin describes how Russia recognized Ukraine and “did a lot” to help it “establish itself as an independent country.” He talks about how Ukraine’s economy thrived during this period and that with Russia they “developed as a single economic system”.

“Ukraine used to possess great potential” with the cooperation of Russia and “is an example for the European Union to look up to.”

But that’s in the past…

Since 2014, this is no longer the case according to Putin. Putin now describes Ukraine as a shell of its former self and “Europe’s poorest country”.

In 2014, we saw the Ukrainian Revolution, wherein a series of violent events involving protestors, the sitting president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, a close ally to Putin, was ousted, and the government was overthrown. Putin considered the overthrow of Yanukovych to be illegal and did not recognize the new government.

This was the critical point in time when Putin saw Ukraine become a threat to Russia.

From 2014, Putin believes western countries have used Ukraine in a “dangerous geopolitical game aimed at turning Ukraine into a barrier between Europe and Russia, a springboard against Russia.”

Putin fears this “springboard” is being used to encroach on Russia’s borders, particularly if Ukraine were to join the NATO alliance.

What is NATO?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance of 30 countries, 28 of these are European countries (including the United Kingdom), along with the United States and Canada. NATO is a collective security agreement where the members agree to defend each other if they are attacked by an external party.

Should Ukraine join NATO, it would benefit from military protection from any invasion.

Despite worldwide condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine, the reason countries like the United States haven’t deployed troops in Ukraine to protect the border is because it is not part of NATO.

It boils down to this:

It is understandable, from an invasion point of view, why Putin would be so opposed to Ukraine joining NATO. If Putin invaded a NATO country, 30 powerful countries would retaliate against him. Reuniting Ukraine with Russia would be impossible in this scenario.

In Putin’s essay, he also talked about how the Ukrainian government is breeding a hatred towards Russia.

“Today, the ‘right’ patriot of Ukraine is only the one who hates Russia. Moreover, the entire Ukrainian statehood, as we understand it, is proposed to be further built exclusively on this idea.”

The 2021 essay concludes by saying that “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.”

Why is Russia attacking Ukraine — The bottom line

Putin is striking while the iron is hot before Ukraine has the possibility of joining NATO because any attack on a NATO country would unequivocally start World War 3. Putin knows that Russia would stand no chance against the militaries of 30 countries, including the United States.

Putin’s core belief is that Ukraine belongs to Russia based on his interpretation of history. 

Why is Russia invading the Ukraine? For Putin it’s simple…

“For we are one people” — Vladimir Putin

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