Trigger warning! Some of the opinions expressed in this article may offend feminists!
FACT-CHECK GUARANTEE (References): [Official think tank report: 1 source] [Official statistics: 3 sources] [Academic Journal: 1 source] [Straight from the source: 1 source] [High-authority and trusted website: 1 source]
A political think tank has issued a stark warning to Britain which could also have global implications.
It’s been reported that the UK risks long-term economic decline due to falling fertility rates leading to a baby shortage.
The political think tank, the Social Market Foundation (SMF), published an extraordinary report detailing how the fall in fertility rate will have severe economic consequences for Britain’s long-term future.
Here’s the deal:
Fertility rates for both Britain and America have been on a steady decline. The UK report highlights that in 2020, the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the average number of children per woman now stands at 1.58. In contrast to the post-World War Two peak of 2.93 children per woman.
The United States sees a similar or even exaggerated situation with the fertility rate, the current TFR being around 1.7 children per woman compared to a TFR of over 3.6 in 1960.
What about fertility rates worldwide?
The same concerns seem to be evident on a global basis, with worldwide fertility rates continuing to decline – it is believed that 23 nations, including Spain and Japan, will see their populations halve by 2100.
So, isn’t that good news considering all the talk about overpopulation?
Not really.
In the UK the TFR has been below the critical replacement rate of 2.1 children, the number of children (who survive to the age of 15) a woman needs in order to have replaced herself and her partner upon death – essentially the rate to keep population numbers relatively stable.
Because the TFR is below 2.1, the UK will likely see its population shrink in the 21st century, assuming immigration and life expectancy stay stable.
Here’s the bad news:
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The report warns that the United Kingdom could face long-term shortages of workers as the ratio of over 65s to working-age adults will increase. By 2050, a quarter of the UK population will be over 65 and presumably retired!
The SMF said, “This combination of a lower share of the population in work and a higher share in need of economic support clearly has a negative effect on the productive capacity of the economy”.
The solution?
“Liberal pronatalism!”
The think tank advises that the government consider the benefits of “liberal pronatalism”, which is explicitly encouraging the population to have children.
This could involve providing people who want to have children with more financial support and incentives.
Importantly, the serious issue of childcare costs in the UK could be reduced for working parents. The OECD estimated that typical British parents spend 22% of their income on full-time childcare.
Childcare costs are particularly high in the UK compared to other western countries and the paper points out “that there is more scope for the government to influence birth rates through childcare policy in the UK than in other parts of the world starting from a better position on childcare costs”.
The authors concluded that the main benefit of encouraging population growth is economic, saying, “Under plausible assumptions, low fertility rates are set to shrink the workforce, stifle demand and slow innovation, suppressing GDP growth and stretching the public finances”.
The SMF also argues that the population decline could be tackled with “liberal immigration policies”. However, that would only be a short-term solution considering the “population is declining elsewhere in the world.”
So, what’s going on!?
The fertility rate crisis is often thought to be due to the decline in male sperm count worldwide. Indeed, a comprehensive meta-analysis reported a significant decline of sperm counts in men from North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand between 1973 and 2011.
However, as of yet, the decline in sperm count is unlikely to be impacting the fertility rate, despite it being a worrying statistic.
The principal drop in fertility rate is thought to be due to greater access to contraception and more women entering the workforce or education.
Women are choosing to have fewer children and instead pursue long professional careers.
Let me be brutally honest:
Put simply, and perhaps controversially, the worldwide feminist movement appears to be stifling population growth and ultimately economic prosperity!
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By Richard Ahern – LifeLine Media
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References (Fact-check guarantee)
1) Baby bust and baby boom: Examining the liberal case for pronatalism: https://www.smf.co.uk/publications/baby-bust-and-baby-boom/ [Official think tank report]
2) Fertility rate, total (births per woman) – United States: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US [Official statistic]
3) Fertility rate, total (births per woman): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN [Official statistic]
4) Fertility rate: https://www.britannica.com/topic/fertility-rate [High-authority and trusted website] {Further reading}
5) Net childcare costs: https://data.oecd.org/benwage/net-childcare-costs.htm [Official statistic]
6) “Baby shortage” could spell economic stagnation for UK: https://www.smf.co.uk/baby-shortage-could-spell-economic-stagnation-for-uk/ [Straight from the source]
7)Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis: https://academic.oup.com/humupd/article/23/6/646/4035689 [Academic journal]
Join the discussion!
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